On the political feasibility of climate change mitigation pathways: Is it too late to keep warming below 1.5°C?

J. Jewell. & A. Cherp. (2020). On the political feasibility of climate change mitigation pathways: Is it too late to keep warming below 1.5°C? Wiley Interdisciplinary Rev (WIRE) Climate Change, 11 (621). Open Access. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.621.

Keeping global warming below 1.5°C is technically possible but is it politically feasible? Understanding political feasibility requires answering three questions: (a) “Feasibility of what?,” (b) “Feasibility when and where?,” and (c) “Feasibility for whom?.” In relation to the 1.5°C target, these questions translate into (a) identifying specific actions comprising the 1.5°C pathways; (b) assessing the economic and political costs of these actions in different socioeconomic and political contexts; and (c) assessing the economic and institutional capacity of relevant social actors to bear these costs. This view of political feasibility stresses costs and capacities in contrast to the prevailing focus on benefits and motivations which mistakes desirability for feasibility. The evidence on the political feasibility of required climate actions is not systematic, but clearly indicates that the costs of required actions are too high in relation to capacities to bear these costs in relevant contexts. In the future, costs may decline and capacities may increase which would reduce political constraints for at least some solutions. However, this is unlikely to happen in time to avoid a temperature overshoot. Further research should focus on exploring the “dynamic political feasibility space” constrained by costs and capacities in order to find more feasible pathways to climate stabilization. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand

News and views climate-policy models debated: clarifying the role of IAMs

J. Jewell. (2019). News and views climate-policy models debated: clarifying the role of IAMs. Nature, 573, 349–349. Open Access. URL: https://media.nature.com/original/magazine-assets/d41586-019-02744-9/d41586-019-02744-9.pdf.

Researchers and policymakers rely on computer simulations called integrated assessment models to determine the best strategies for tackling climate change. Here, scientists present opposing views on the suitability of these simulations.

Prospects for powering past coal

J. Jewell, V. Vinichenko, L. Nacke, & A. Cherp. (2019). Prospects for powering past coal. Nature Climate Change, 9(8), 592–597. Gated. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0509-6. Preprint.

To keep global warming within 1.5 °C of pre-industrial levels, there needs to be a substantial decline in the use of coal power by 2030 and in most scenarios, complete cessation by 2050. The members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), launched in 2017 at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, are committed to “phasing out existing unabated coal power generation and a moratorium on new coal power generation without operational carbon capture and storage”. The alliance has been hailed as a ‘political watershed’ and a new ‘anti-fossil fuel norm’. Here we estimate that the premature retirement of power plants pledged by PPCA members would cut emissions by 1.6 GtCO2, which is 150 times less than globally committed emissions from existing coal power plants. We also investigated the prospect of major coal consumers joining the PPCA by systematically comparing members to non-members. PPCA members extract and use less coal and have older power plants, but this alone does not fully explain their pledges to phase out coal power. The members of the alliance are also wealthier and have more transparent and independent governments. Thus, what sets them aside from major coal consumers, such as China and India, are both lower costs of coal phase-out and a higher capacity to bear these costs. To limit warming, a rapid reduction in coal use is needed. Early retirement of coal power plants by members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which includes mainly wealthy countries that use little coal, would have a modest climate impact. Prospects for expanding the Alliance are examined.

The international technological nuclear cooperation landscape: a new dataset and network analysis

J. Jewell, M. Vetier, & D. Garcia-Cabrera. (2019). The international technological nuclear cooperation landscape: a new dataset and network analysis. Energy Policy, 128, 838-852. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.024.

The pursuit of civil nuclear power, frequently justified in the name of national energy security, paradoxically entangles most states in long-term interdependencies with the few countries that can supply nuclear technologies. These interdependencies are insufficiently documented and poorly understood. This article presents and analyzes a new dataset of nuclear cooperation agreements signed or announced between 2000 and 2015. We find that Russia and the US dominate international technological nuclear cooperation, with the US’ dominance particularly prominent in safety and security and Russia’s in nuclear power plant construction, reactor and fuel supply, decommissioning and waste. When it comes to these technologies, Russia is the supplier in approximately half of all agreements; France, the US, China, Korea, and Japan together account for another 40%. All in all, six countries are suppliers in over 90% of all international nuclear agreements, a far higher supplier concentration than in oil and gas markets. These results show that the global future of nuclear power depends as much on international cooperation as on national motivations and capacities. Effective policies and institutions supporting the safe use of nuclear power should therefore be directed at managing its international as well as national aspects.

The politics of energy security

J. Jewell & E. Brutschin. (2019). The politics of energy security. I: K. Hancock & J. Allison (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Energy Politics, 247-274. Gated. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190861360.013.10.

Energy security has long been a main driver of energy policies, but its meaning has been contested by policy makers and scholars. The concept incorporates both material and intersubjective aspects, finding different expressions in different contexts and attracting the interest of diverse social actors and academic communities. This chapter identifies, compares, and contrasts five major approaches for analyzing energy security rooted in different scholarly traditions. It argues that in order to facilitate a dialogue among these approaches as well as policy comparison and learning, it is useful to conceptualize energy security as “low vulnerability of vital energy systems.” This definition opens avenues for productive research, unpacking the interplay between material and intersubjective aspects of “vulnerability” and “vitality” of energy systems. Future research should investigate the role of material factors alongside power, values, and trust in defining energy security; explain the gap between energy securitization and action; and explore the interaction between energy security and other energy policy goals.

Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: a meta-theoretical framework

A. Cherp, V. Vinichenko, J. Jewell, E. Brutschin, & B. Sovacool. (2018). Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: a meta-theoretical framework. Energy Research & Social Science, 37, 175–190. Open Access. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.09.015.

Economic development, technological innovation, and policy change are especially prominent factors shaping energy transitions. Therefore explaining energy transitions requires combining insights from disciplines investigating these factors. The existing literature is not consistent in identifying these disciplines nor proposing how they can be combined. We conceptualize national energy transitions as a co-evolution of three types of systems: energy flows and markets, energy technologies, and energy-related policies. The focus on the three types of systems gives rise to three perspectives on national energy transitions: techno-economic with its roots in energy systems analysis and various domains of economics; socio-technical with its roots in sociology of technology, STS, and evolutionary economics; and political with its roots in political science. We use the three perspectives as an organizing principle to propose a meta-theoretical framework for analyzing national energy transitions. Following Elinor Ostrom’s approach, the proposed framework explains national energy transitions through a nested conceptual map of variables and theories. In comparison with the existing meta-theoretical literature, the three perspectives framework elevates the role of political science since policies are likely to be increasingly prominent in shaping 21st century energy transitions.

Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

J. Jewell, D. McCollum, J. Emmerling, C. Bertram, D.E.H.J. Gernaat, V. Krey, L. Paroussos, L. Berger, K. Fragkiadakis, I. Keppo, N. Saadi, M. Tavoni, D.P. van Vuuren, V. Vinichenko, & K. Riahi. (2018). Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions. Nature. Gated. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25467. PrePrint.

Many governments use subsidies for fossil fuels to reduce the cost of energy for domestic consumption. This has led to the frequent argument that removing subsidies could play an important part in mitigating climate change. Now, Jessica Jewel and colleagues show that subsidy removal would indeed substantially lower emissions in fossil-fuel-exporting countries, but would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by only a few per cent by 2030. This small reduction would largely be due to offsetting effects from international trade and fuel substitution. The authors also find that subsidy removal would not dramatically increase the use of renewable energy, adding to the suggestion that extensive revisions of subsidy policies would not produce a major benefit for climate mitigation.

International political economy of nuclear energy

E. Brutschin & J. Jewell. (2018). International political economy of nuclear energy. Andreas Goldthau & Michael F. Keating & Caroline Kuzemko (ed.). Handbook of the International Political Economy of Energy and Natural Resources. Chapter 23, 322-341. Edward Elgar Publishing. Gated. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781783475636.00033.

The use of nuclear power has been driven by the motivation to meet growing electricity demand while avoiding dependence on imported fossil fuels and constrained by capacities to launch nuclear energy programmes. The chapter argues that tension between the two is a defining feature of the international political economy of nuclear energy. On the one hand, nuclear technology promises energy security and industrial modernisation. On the other hand, launching nuclear programmes can plunge countries into three forms of international dependence: on imported uranium, on production and disposal of nuclear fuel, and on the uneven capacities to manufacture nuclear reactors and construct nuclear power plants. The authors argue that international cooperation and competition profoundly shape how states deploy, expand and phase out their nuclear power programmes and brings together diverse international aspects of nuclear power which may increasingly shape the future of nuclear energy.

Comparing electricity transitions: a historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan

Cherp, A., Vinichenko, V., Jewell, J., Suzuki, M. & Antal, M. (2017). Comparing electricity transitions: a historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. Energy Policy, 101, 612-628. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.044.

This paper contributes to understanding national variations in using low-carbon electricity sources by comparing the evolution of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. It develops and applies a framework for analyzing low-carbon electricity transitions based on interplay of techno-economic, political and socio-technical processes. We explain why in the 1970s–1980s, the energy paths of the two countries were remarkably similar, but since the 1990s Germany has become a leader in renewables while phasing out nuclear energy, whereas Japan has deployed less renewables while becoming a leader in nuclear power. We link these differences to the faster growth of electricity demand and energy insecurity in Japan, the easier diffusion of onshore wind power technology and the weakening of the nuclear power regime induced by stagnation and competition from coal and renewables in Germany. We show how these changes involve the interplay of five distinct mechanisms which may also play a role in other energy transitions.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

D.L. McCollum, J. Jewell, V. Krey, M. Bazilian, M. Fay & K. Riahi. (2016). Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions. Nature Energy, 1 (7), 16077. Gated. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.77. Preprint.

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-systemwide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

J. Jewell, V. Vinichenko, D. McCollum, N. Bauer, K. Riahi, T. Aboumahboub, O. Fricko, M. Harmsen, T. Kober, V. Krey, G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, D.P. Van Vuuren, B. Van Der Zwaan & A. Cherp. (2016). Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies. Nature Energy 1, 1-9. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.73.

Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long- term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2–15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70%reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ◦ C.

Global energy security under different climate policies, GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities

A. Cherp, J. Jewell, V. Vinichenko, N. Bauer & E. D. Cian. (2016). Global energy security under different climate policies, GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities. Climatic Change, 136 (1), 83-94. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0950-x.

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.

2°C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall?

C. von Stechow, J. C. Minx, K. Riahi, J. Jewell, D. L. McCollum, M. W. Callaghan, C. Bertram, G. Luderer & G. Baiocchi. (2016). 2°C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall? Environmental Research Letters, 11 (3), 034022. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034022.

The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs across SDGs are locked into the system for weak short-term climate policies that are broadly in line with current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), particularly when combined with constraints on technologies. Lowering energy demand growth is key to managing these trade-offs and creating synergies across multiple energy-related SD dimensions. We argue that SD considerations are central for choosing socially acceptable 2 °C pathways: the prospects of meeting other SDGs need not dwindle and can even be enhanced for some goals if appropriate climate policy choices are made. Progress on the climate policy and SDG agendas should therefore be tracked within a unified framework.

Introducing nuclear power in Turkey: a historic state strategy and future prospects

J. Jewell, & S. A. Ates. (2015). Introducing nuclear power in Turkey: a historic state strategy and future prospects. Energy Research & Social Science, 10, 273–282. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.07.011.

Turkey is currently in the middle of its sixth attempt over the last 60 years to introduce nuclear power. This paper analyzes Turkey’s past and present motivation, capacity and strategies to identify the factors which influence deployment of nuclear power and draw lessons for other nuclear newcomer countries. While existing literature points to a correlation between nuclear power, strong state involvement, centralized energy planning and the rhetoric linking energy to national prestige and security, we show that these factors are not sufficient for a successful nuclear program. We also show that autocratic rule and nuclear weapons aspirations can undermine rather than support the development of civilian nuclear power as it is often presumed in the literature. Turkey’s current strategy based on intergovernmental agreements with Russia and Japan is laced with irony since it is motivated by energy security considerations and yet relies on foreign entities for construction, ownership and operation of nuclear power plants as well as the development of human capacity. Although Ankara intends to build the third nuclear power plant with own resources this seems unlikely based on the South Korean and Japanese experience, both of which needed much more time and effort to localize the industry.

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

M. Tavoni, E. Kriegler, K. Riahi, D. P. van Vuuren, T. Aboumahboub, A. Bowen, K. Calvin, E. Campiglio, T. Kober, J. Jewell, G. Luderer, G. Marangoni, D. McCollum, M. van Sluisveld, A. Zimmer & B. van der Zwaan. (2014). Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2), 119-126. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2475.

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2 °C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

The concept of energy security: beyond the 4 A’s

A. Cherp, & J. Jewell. (2014). The concept of energy security: beyond the four A’s. Energy Policy, 75, 415-421. Open Access. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.005.

Energy security studies have expanded from their classic beginnings following the 1970s oil crises to encompass various energy sectors and increasingly diverse issues. This viewpoint contributes to the re-examination of the meaning of energy security that has accompanied this expansion. Our starting point is that energy security is an instance of security in general and thus any concept of it should address three questions: “Security for whom?”, “Security for which values?” and “Security from what threats?” We examine an influential approach - the ‘four As of energy security’ (availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability) and related literature of energy security - to show it does not address these questions. We subsequently summarize recent insights which propose a different concept of energy security as ‘low vulnerability of vital energy systems’. This approach opens the road for detailed exploration of vulnerabilities as a combination of exposure to risks and resilience and of the links between vital energy systems and critical social functions. The examination of energy security framed by this concept involves several scientific disciplines and provides a useful platform for scholarly analysis and policy learning.

Securitization of energy supply chains in China

G. C. Leung, A. Cherp, J. Jewell & Y.-M. Wei. (2014). Securitization of energy supply chains in China. Applied Energy, 123, 316-326. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.12.016.

Three sources of energy security risks, namely sovereignty, robustness and resilience, affect China’s energy chains. Energy security issues in China both have shaped and at the same time were shaped by ideas and institutions. China remains rigid with equating ‘security’ with ‘national security’ and the notion of “national” is socially constructed. Powerful actors, such as Chinese NOCs, inclined to interpret the problem so that it fits their preferred solution. Securitization of any energy supply chains results from their historical roots, system properties and institutional agents.

Energy and security

A. Cherp, A. Adenikinju, F. Hernandez, A. Goldthau, L. Hughes, J. Jewell, J. C. Jansen, M. Olshanskaya, R. S. de Oliveira, B. K. Sovacool & S. Vakulenko. (2012). Energy and security (T. B. Johansson, N. Nakicenovic, & A. Patwardan, Eds.). Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future. 325-384. Cambridge University Press. Preprint.

Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: an assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices

J. Jewell, A. Cherp & K. Riahi. (2014). Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: an assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices. Energy Policy, 65, 743-760. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.051.

How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 “low-carbon” scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables.

Energy security assessment framework and three case-studies

A. Cherp & J. Jewell. (2013). Energy security assessment framework and three case-studies (H. Dyer & M. J. Trombetta, Eds.). International Handbook of Energy Security. Chapter 8, 146-173, Edward Elgar Publishing. Gated. Preprint.