Contractions
Photo: JunepA: https://www.flickr.com/photos/junepa/26704713209
The Contractions (Analyzing past and future energy industry contractions: Towards a better understanding of the flip-side of energy transitions) project focuses on analysing the mechanisms and the historic rates of decline of energy industries and comparing these to the decline rates and mechanisms expected in the future energy transitions. Contractions brings together researchers from the Centre for Climate and Energy Transformations at the University of Bergen, Norway the Rokkan Centre, the Energy Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, and the Physical Resources Division at Chalmers University, Sweden. It is funded by the Research Council of Norway under the Climate change research program. This page features POLET blog entries related to Contractions.
Publications related to Contractions project
O. M. Lægreid, A. Cherp, J. Jewell. (2023). Coal phase-out pledges follow peak coal: evidence from 60 years of growth and decline in coal power capacity worldwide. Oxford Open Energy. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ooenergy/oiad009
S.L. Bi, N. Bauer & J. Jewell. (2023). Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum. Nature Climate Change. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8
J. Jewell, M. Vetier, V. Vinichenko, O.M. Lægreid, S. Pai, A. Cherp, H. Brauers, I. Braunger, L. Nacke, H. Zerriffi. (2022). Quitting fossil fuels: how fast can the world do it? Policy brief.
V. Vinichenko, A. Cherp, J. Jewell. (2021). Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target. One Earth. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.012
E. Brutschin, A. Cherp, & J. Jewell. (2021). Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets. Energy Research & Social Science. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102221
S. Pai, J. Emmerling, L. Drouet, H. Zerriffi & J. Jewell. (2021). Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally. One Earth. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.005.
H. Brauers, I. Braunger & J. Jewell. (2021). Liquefied natural gas expansion plans in Germany: The risk of gas lock-in under energy transitions. Energy Research & Social Science. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102059
S. Pai, H. Zerriffi, J. Jewell & J. Pathak. (2020). Solar has greater techno-economic resource suitability than wind for replacing coal mining jobs. Environmental Research Letters. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6c6d.
J. Jewell, J. Emmerling, V. Vinichenko, C. Bertram, L. Berger, H. E. Daly, I. Keppo, V. Krey, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, K. Fragkiadakis, D. McCollum, L. Paroussas, K. Riahi, M. Tavoni & D. van Vuuren. (2020). Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter. Nature. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1921-9.
Commentary and news related to Contractions project
Alberta has the third largest oil reserves in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In early 2015, profits from the oil sands made up about 5% of Canada’s GDP Canada’s highest incomes are found in the heart of oil-sand-country. However, Alberta’s real GDP contracted over 3.5% each in the years 2015 and 2016 due to the fall of oil prices. What does this experience tell us about contractions expected as a result of decarbonisation?
Energy transitions involve not only expanding wind, solar and other low-carbon technologies but also phasing out existing carbon-intensive sources such as coal. Introducing new energy sources is often easier to advocate as it involves no job or revenue losses. However, phasing out existing energy technologies is harder both economically and politically, though it is precisely what eventually reduces greenhouse gas emissions. In a new project, we focus at this unexplored dark side of energy transitions.
At COP26, 46 countries signed the ‘Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement’, ‘consigning coal to history’, including significant coal consumers such as Indonesia and Vietnam. Translating the experience of just transition policies from developed countries to emerging and developing economies is a crucial policy challenge to help implement these commitments. We developed a diagnostic tool to help researchers and policy makers most effectively translate these lessons.