Growth Pulses in Onshore Wind Deployment: Historical patterns and policy targets

Marta Vetier, Vadim Vinichenko, Aleh Cherp, Anastasia Pavlenko and Jessica Jewell (pre-print) Growth Pulses in Onshore Wind Deployment: Historical patterns and policy targets. POLET Working Paper series 2025-1

ABSTRACT

Meeting global climate targets requires continued rapid deployment of onshore wind power, yet recent forecasts suggest wind deployment may be slowing, raising debate about whether this represents a permanent trend or temporary fluctuation. This study systematically analyzes growth patterns of onshore wind power across 17 European countries. Our findings reveal that wind deployment follows distinct growth pulses lasting 4-8 years. Rather than indicating ultimate decline or saturation as suggested by S-curve models, we demonstrate that observed slowdowns are often temporary, with subsequent pulses resuming growth. Analysis of 2030 national targets shows most countries aim to either sustain growth or restore it to historically maximum rates, while Austria, Belgium and Germany seek unprecedented acceleration. These findings highlight that policy-driven technologies may experience a prolonged stable growth phase that is neither accelerating nor decelerating.

Download the working paper: Vetier2025_preprint.pdf